PPRuNe Forums - View Single Post - Is there a market for the 380?
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Old 6th Aug 2004, 11:28
  #18 (permalink)  
panda-k-bear
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Join Date: Dec 2001
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Quite frankly, increasing speed is of little relevance in spite of some personal opinions. Do you see a new supersonic passenger aircraft out there? No, didn't think so. On the drawing board even? No again. Too expensive to produce, too thirsty, too much to maintain and thus too expensive to operate. Anyone who thought that the sonic cruiser was a real aeroplane must need a serious mental health check - what's the point gaining 20 minutes in flight time only to lose it again when in the stack or during taxi in? What's the point in having an aircraft that leaves the Asian countries to arrive in Europe (the routes where you could get a meaningful time reduction) during the curfews? Why design an aircraft to cruise at the point where drag is at its highest and so burn the most fuel possible? Insanity, all of it.

The A380 DOES have a market. It IS point to point, but the points are bigger. As populations grow, so do the cities, don't forget - so there are more of those bigger points. Of course the economists in Airbus know there's a market. Of course they've studied it. And of course, so have Boeing. And they have (at least in my opinion) come to the same conclusion as Airbus - hence the Sonic Cruiser "spoiler". Just a shame it didn't work too well, because Airbus is still selling A380s. Unless I'm very much mistaken, Airbus have succeeded in adding at least one new customer every year since the launch of the A380 - not bad considering that is usually the most dead period with orders only just picking up after entry into service. 139 orders with something like 18 months to go until EIS isn't too bad, is it? And, as yet, no orders from BA, Northwest, JAL, ANA, Air China, Air India, United (?), Air New Zealand, Cathay Pacific or Cargolux who all must be prime candidates. Then there's all of the options from the existing customers that aren't included in that 139. Let's face it, Airbus stated that break even was at 250 A380s sold. That's easily achievable given this lot. There is simply no competitor and to think that fragmentation is going to replace hub services completely is madness - people are still going to have to route through hubs whether they like it or not (I reiterate my Leeds-Bradford to Indianapolis case!)

I rather think that my glasses are a bit more clear than off-pink!
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