Ah yes the eternal question is there a market for the 380?
Boeing has always said that there is only market enough for one VLA and it wasn’t very big and that’s why they weren’t going to bother (I think it was a total market for about 100-200 over 20 years or something like that anyway)
They may be right, they may be wrong, I don’t know and it appears neither do Boeing… If you remember periodically they talk about stretching the 744 but then they shelve the program again (usually because of lack of airline interest…old dog new tricks perhaps?).
So far Airboos have flogged about 130 of the beasts which either means they will only flog few more over the next 20 or 30 years or the actual size of the market is bigger than Boeing suggest. Remember there are still some very big airline players yet to ante up for 380s doesn’t mean they are not going to.
Demand for air transport is growing…long term the trend is still up.
If you draw a graph which shows the number of people traveling by air and you start it at Orville and Wilbur and end with today give or take it comes out about 5% compound annual growth on average – funny thing short term drops like 02-03 which seem to cataclysmic at the time will be hardly a squiggle in the long term graph (as the mid 70s. early 80s and 91-93 events were) (which is probably why it is that IATA is always forecasting about 5% growth – funny that).
Therefore in about 10 years or so pax numbers will be close to double today’s and in 15 years in the neighborhood of triple. Granted much of this will come from emerging markets (India domestic and China spring to mind) but necessarily there will also be growth in mature markets – significant growth.
Problem is of course, there are only so many slots…Hub bypass is likely to remain a short haul thing – long haul is still hub stuff even if it’s hub to spoke (a’la NY to Birmingham or Toulouse or wherever).
So we’ll have slot constraints (already do at some hubs – plus look at what Minetta and Blakey want to happen at ORD). So the only way to grow ASMs in that environment is bigger aircraft. This will happen right through the spectrum – replace a 50 seat RJ with a 70, a 70 with a 100, A319 with a 321 and so on – in fact it is already beginning to happen. And where to go at the big end of the equation? Step forward Airboos and the 380.
Notso also makes the point about the age of the 74 family (the base design is getting on for 40 years old – older if you go back as far as Boeing’s C5 entry that it’s based on) so there’s the replacement market on top of the need for growth.
Will there be market for the 380?
Yep I think that’s a reasonable assumption…meets the need for more pax and no competition…Mind you there still a lot of stuff to sort out (as there was when the 747 came along) airport terminal design, the weight issues and the impact of it’s wake vortices on runway capacity all spring to mind.