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Old 6th Aug 2004, 10:24
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Omark44
 
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And that, Notso, is where we will have to beg to differ.

"There will always be a big market for big aeroplanes" - Somehow I don't think so. The B744 hit the ceiling and the follow up and demand for the B777 family, (and the A330/340 family), demonstrate this, I believe.

The operators will love the A380 for the high density routes but they simply don't need so many. Don't use ME airlines as any kind of yardstick as some have more money than most other airlines know what to do with and are driven more by kudos than economic sense, look at their history!

EK may well wipe out all the competition in the Gulf area and look to be using SQ as their business model but they have nothing like the catchement area of any of the Far East airlines. Should EK discover a surplus they will simply dump the spare airframes on the market creating yet further headaches for Airbus who will be desperately trying to sell new airframes.

There is a market for the A380 but it is much too small to make the aircraft a viable financial proposition for the makers, the history of ever expanding airframe size, in this case, would be a very unreliable yardstick for Airbus.

The B747 started life as a contender for the USA military as a cargo carrier with a passenger capability, it eventually became the lead singer in the commercial aeroplane market. The A380, with it's obvious size, bulk load and troop transport capability could well tread a similar path to the B747 but in reverse.
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