I have heard a rumour that the JSF is so noisy that the likelihood of it going to Whittering, following the recent noise pollution court case, is now looking dodgy. Equally, although an announcement has been made that the VSTOL variant is the one we want, problems have occurred in its design and there remains the possibility the purely naval version will be looked at again. This leaves the decision of where to base them when they come on line. For many reasons including: airspace, training areas, noise, access to the sea for embarkation, twin bases (due to numbers and servicing requirements) etc, etc. both Yeovilton and St Mawgan as well as Lossiemouth and Kinloss have been mentioned as alternatives to Cottesmore and Whittering. Again, this is all rumour and the DART report due out in the New Year will hopefully put to bed all of this conjecture.
Ps
St Mawgan will never close as it hardly costs the MOD anything to run. That is why it has managed to survive countless cutbacks in the past whilst still on the surface having only 4 helicopters based there.