An obiturary on the wonderful 747 is very premature indeed.
However, having been fortunate enough to have flown them and now the 777, I can see how Boeing have to a certain extent sealed the 74s fate itself by producing such an excellent successor.
I am still not convinced though that it won't make a come back in the future. There is still a need for a Jumbo sized aircraft between major congested hubs. New materials and engine advances may still offer a life-line if the markets appetite for the A380 isn't fully satisfied.
Personally I am also a luddite that still has concerns over EROPs; that we are pushing too much to the limits of range and performance of large twins such as the 777. Thankfully so far so good but I don't have the same confidence flying so far away from land with two engines as I did with four...but alas that is an argument that doesn't stand a chance on any accountants bottom line and we have dinghy drills so why worry?
The 747-400 will still be around for a long time as it adapts to its secondary role in the cargo sector. Fuel prices will obviously play a major factor but another to be considered was that the limiting factor at least with the classic was the availability of spare engines and other major components that is begining to make them even less economic to maintain...
Time will tell, but the fat lady isn't singing for the old girl yet.
Last edited by Shake; 15th June 2004 at 08:27.