Wheelbarrow, I was amazed bt the Ryanair results to the point that I find them very difficult to believe.
Over the 30 years to around 1994 the aviation industry faced year on year yield reductions of around one percent peryear in real terms. This alone was enough to drive some companies out of business. Ryanair's yield reduction last year was 14%.
Their capacity is rising and their yields are falling. It does not take much of a mathematician to prove that it is only a matter of time before the various graph lines associated with those statistics run into dangerous territory.
I do not think fuel is the main risk that Ryanair face. I think it is that they are assuming that they will be the winner in a vicious price war. That is neither proven nor inevitable. It may turn out to be the case.
Just look at waht is happening in the Ruhr area at the moment. Dusseldorf used to be the overwhelmingly favoured airport. But now there are competitive offerings from and to numerous European cities from Niederrhein, Cologne/Bonn, Dortmund, Munster and Paderborn. Ryanair's operations at Niederrhein are probably the worst located and that disadvantage can only be compensated for by lower fares.
There is almost certainly overcapacity in that area of Germany now and it is likely to get worse.
There will be casualties. Ryanair has probably got enough cash to see off some of its competitors but waht is likely to happen is that the industry will consolidate abd that there will be very few long term survivors. BA in their last results release identified that there are 54 so-called low cost operators in Europe. My guess is that this time next year there will be less than 40.