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Old 27th Apr 2004, 19:42
  #280 (permalink)  
loaded1
 
Join Date: May 2000
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No, I am not Michaeal O Leery and I dont want to fly for him either. But I am right about the LCC phenomenon and what it means for EVERY established operator.

Hand Solo you said:

"Thats BAs market and where it makes it's profits."

You have, I respectfully suggest, missed the point. There is nowhere near enough profit to sustain the business if we carry on as we are. It is finished. Look at the operating ratio and compare it to a LCC.

I wrote my last post before reading today's FT (1) and Flight (2):

1) Boeing says:

"the 7E7 is being studied by LCC's who wish to expand their business model into new markets".

2) EU accession countries wish to emulate the low cost model and OUT low-cost it, (using their below rock-bottom salary structure).

A guy from Latvia is quoted as saying he will make the cost of flying more competitive than using buses and ferries. There is no reason at all to confine that model to the borders of the origin country alone, after all Ryan don't and nor does Easyjet.

I repeat: sell your house, go into rented, take your kids out of private school, (if they are there), get rid of every and any financial encumberance you have and stand by for permanent DEEP pay cuts as a way of life.

The market wants more of a social good - air travel - and it wants it at the lowest achievable price. I repeat YOU CANT BUCK THE MARKET. Competition, already murderous, is going to get HELLISH. Watch as Alitalia and Air Canada go bust. Marvel as US Air sinks out of sight. I am not being glib: there is TOO MUCH capacity in the market, which also means too many pilots, hosties, engineers etc etc. There will soon be 000's of type-rated, experienced pilots on the market: face it - salaries and conditions are heading for the floor.

As for comparing the City to Flying: for goodness sake!! If you can get in and get one of those jobs : bully for you, but for the rest of us flying is heading on down to the level of bus driving as regards the respect and remuneration aspects. The BA engineers have been taken there already, we are next, and then the CC too.

The real irony is that if we dont go there, then there wont be a BA anyway.

Old adage number one thousand and ten:

"Just because you're busy, it doesnt mean your getting rich!".

BA's planes are full but to get them there we are selling at prices that are UNSUSTAINABLE against costs long term. We are not even close to the operating ratios of the LCC's and until we are we are in a slow motion free fall to extinction.
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