VP
I am not sure it is quite as bad as you make out. I reckon that the number of people (successfully) taking the ATPLs each year is probably nearer 1000....and less CPL/IRs issued. I doubt there has ever been a year when there has been 750 jobs on offer, so each year the base of unemployed CPL/IRs increases....especially in the years of poor recruitment (2001-2003). So on paper it all looks pretty bleak.
However, not all the eager beavers manage to sustain their enthusiasm or stay afloat financially...so inevitably there is a drop out as sensible people go and get a proper job....some never to return.
The moral of this story is don't start if you are not prepared to risk being skint for years with lots of debt hanging over your head. My own theory is that the jobs go to the lucky and/or the persistant.....but it is seriously difficult to be persistant when there are so many knock backs.
I am now a CPL IR MCC and FI with over 1000 hours and some turboprop time as a pilot assistant on AOC charters, and it is 3 years since I completed my last ATPL exam. No sniff of a job/interview so far, but the longer I hang around, the more people I meet and the more I understand the lottery. Like many of the good friends I have met since starting down this track, I live in hope and persistance. ....and best of luck to all those hanging on in quiet desperation...