Iran V2.0

[ORAC]

Isw:

https://x.com/thestudyofwar/status/2...090173701?s=20

iran update special report, may 24, 2026: Conflicting us, iranian, and regional reporting indicates that the contours of a possible us-iran memorandum of understanding (mou) remain unresolved and may not yet represent a final agreement.

More key takeaways:

Iranian officials, islamic revolutionary guards corps (irgc)-affiliated outlets, and iranian sources speaking to western and regional media are presenting the possible mou as conditional on us concessions and continued iranian leverage.

Irgc-affiliated reporting has identified frozen assets, sanctions relief, the naval blockade, lebanon, and the strait of hormuz as the main unresolved issues. This is every issue in the first stage of the agreement, before talks on the nuclear program.

Mediators appear to be trying to preserve momentum toward a us-iran mou by sequencing unresolved issues and developing technical arrangements for the strait of hormuz, but iranian reporting suggests that iran has rejected efforts to defer its core demands.

Iran appears to believe that it is negotiating from a stronger position than the united states and is accordingly attempting to remake the regional order in a way that benefits iran.

Iran has not publicly accepted meaningful nuclear concessions in the possible mou, and iran believes that the draft defers nuclear talks until after iran secures relief from military and economic pressure.

Iranian officials have stated that the us-iran mou must end the war “on all fronts,” including in lebanon. The united states supports continued israeli operations against hezbollah, however, to prevent threats to israel.

Israeli officials have reportedly called on the united states to allow the israel defense forces (idf) to continue its operations in lebanon, in accordance with the current temporary ceasefire in lebanon, and president trump agreed with this position.

Hezbollah officials have continuously reiterated that the group will continue to engage the idf in southern lebanon and launch attacks against northern israel until the idf completely halts its activity in lebanon and withdraws from southern lebanese territory.

Read the full report, may 24, 2026: https://understandingwar.org/researc...t-may-24-2026/

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