Originally Posted by
NOC40
Fitch were too optimistic: is that what you're saying?
Yes. I have enormous respect for ratings agencies but it is always an impossible job to predict the future.
To quote the inimitable Donald Rumsfeld, '
as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don't know we don't know'
Rating agencies largely mispriced the risks of collaterized debt obligations and credit default swaps, because the contamination risks of these products were not properly understood. They were 'unknown unknowns'.
Air Baltic, along with every other Airbus 220 operator, has suffered financially due to the current unreliability of the Pratt & Whitney Geared Turbofan (GTF) PW1500G, which is
the exclusive engine for the Airbus A220.
Having the largest Airbus A220-300 fleet in the world is not a great place to be with engine reliability issues.
Add to that the €1.3 billion debt, post 28 February 2026 market volatility, and the timing is not favourable for an Air Baltic IPO. There are also many 'unknown unknowns'.
Air Baltic many not continue in its current form but it will be the shareholders or creditors who decide its fate. Even if it collapsed, it would provide rich manure from which another airline (or airlines) could grow.