Originally Posted by
Not_a_boffin
I suspect it depends on what the "threat" actually is, post Epic Tantrum phase 1.
CENTCOM J2/J3 ought to have anticipated an attempt to close the strait and as a matter of course ought to have malleted every known storage location of sea mines, every small harbour (there are surprisingly few) with IRGC FIAC and of course the main naval bases, targeting the Kilos and Ghadirs. That leaves the missile threat, which - again - ought to have been targetted relatively early. There is nigh-on air supremacy, which means that persistent ISR with on-call strike should be achievable.
All of the above should - big if here - reduce the threat to relatively residual levels and each launch / disclosure further depletes the threat. Still significant risk, but some successful transits might actually shift the P&I market.
Note - the word "ought" above is doing some seriously heavy lifting.
What's the use of malleting every "known" location when there are probably far more unknown ones?
Is it acceptable to destroy every single small fisherman's boat you find? Nice! What to do about inflatables with big outboards that can be kept in a house, hut or cave? Ditto drones and even mines. Small boats are easily hidden.
It's a vain hope even with modern sensors that you'd achieve a high success rate. After all, you have to be lucky 100% of the time, they only have to be lucky once.