Originally Posted by
artee
I think the SoH is open, for those willing to go through the Toll Booth (Ayatollah Booth) between Qeshm & Larak islands. A bargain at c. $2m, in Crypto or Yuan.
The SoH is open for those
whose insurers are willing to cover them to go through the Toll Booth (Ayatollah Booth) between Qeshm & Larak islands...
It really doesn't matter very much who says the strait is or is not open; if the insurance industry isn't on board, very little moves.
Originally Posted by
Dave Ed
Opening the Straits of Hormuz isn't the only problem. Reported on AlJazeerah, Saudia Arabia has just released a damage assessment in relation to oil and gas facilities which look fairly extensive including the vital East-West pipeline. All the Gulf states were fairly secretive about how much actual damage was caused to key oil/gas/port infrastructure over the past few weeks. It will be a long time before exports can reach pre-war levels - maybe years if major repairs are needed to facilities.
Riyadh discloses damage to key Aramco facilities | Latest Market News
Just on ten years ago we had an interesting conversation
here in PPRuNe about the likely nature of peak oil being a loss of demand rather than tapering off supply.
Although we're currently seeing sustained demand in excess of abruptly reduced supply, this is giving the world a firm shove in the direction of reduced demand by the development of other energy sources and decarbonisation.
Regardless of your position on climate change or the possibility of running out of economically recoverable oil, diversifying energy sources away from oil (and gas, looking at you, Europe and Russia gas), is strategically wise and increasingly economically favourable too. Adoption of electric vehicles in most parts of the world outside "you know who" is rapidly accelerating, and all these factors combined with the likely ongoing disruption to supply for several years that you allude to, make me wonder whether we might be seeing peak oil right now or very soon. By the time the supply is back up to pre-war levels, the demand may well have faded considerably.
But as I said ten years ago; I'm an engineer, not an economist (or a climate scientist). Nobody else seems to be saying this might be peak oil, so maybe I'm talking out my hat.