Iran

[fdr]

What passes for victory when the White House starts a show seems to have crossed over into the surreal.

Once upon a time, the Straits were open, and Iran was actually talking to the world with some resentment about curtailing their nuclear weapons ambitions. Once the USA had allies. Then, we get to today, where victory has been declared multiple times by the Guy in the White House, "the war was won on the first day"; "the war is not a war, I can't use the word war because that would upset the congress...."; "the excursion was won on the first day..."; "we destroyed all of their airforce..."; "we destroyed their whole navy..."; "we don't really care that shipping is being stopped in the straits..."; "If you dont open up the straits, we will we will invade..."; "we don't care if the straits are blocked, thats everyone else's problems, not ours...".

Heres the thing, control of the Straits of Hormuz arises from the actions that Israel and the US elected to unilaterally undertake. Forget about capping the "dead of state" sequentially, which while there were not on my xmas card list, is still a rather problematic manner of conducting international diplomacy, forget about unilaterally taking action that affected allied nations, and then suggesting that when there is pushback that it doesn't matter about the cheat-up on aisle 13 that is left behind....

Presumably the is the same technique that the incumbent used to bankrupt almost every company he ever owned, including the remarkable feat of bankrupting a casino! Presumably it is the same technique that has been applied to head the USA towards recession once again, with the spectre of stagflation. The winner in this is not currently the majority of US citizens, those that have had the opportunity to manipulate the market certainly have been winning, but then, that seems to be like water off the ducks back, apparently "draining the swamp" has various interpretations. So, very specific individuals in the US are indeed benefitting from the efforts of Kapt'n Kaos and his band of planners. However, Iran is one of the winners here, and should thank the WH for their assistance, they gain complete control of the gulf states, and with the expected next step being the closure of theBab-el-Mandeb and the odd occasional swipe at traffic in the Suez Canal, to assist the concentration of the minds of Saudi Arabia, the figures on the amount of global energy controlled by Teheran will need a bit of an adjustment. Iran and Vlad have been besties for some time, and given the assistance that Vlad has curiously received from his man in the WH, that places Vlad in an extraordinary position, as a consequence of the actions of the WH.

Wondering where the rights to gaudy golden edifices for hotels have been drawn up for.

Walking away with a gratuitous "mission accomplished" when the WH has effectively damaged Saudi, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, UAE and even Oman seems to be impolite, but not without precedent.

I do not wish to see boots on the ground, and lord knows those boots will never be Bibi's, or Donnie's, they would be some poor troops that drank the Kool-aid, but it ain't over just because y'all are approaching a tee off time, nope, what remains is the clean-up on aisle 13, and golly, you need a big pail and mop for that.

Walking away now with reality being replaced by rhetoric brings forward the fate of Taiwan, which should be really worthy of popcorn. China has effectively a near repeat of the strategic conditions that existed with resources at the time that the Japanese considered that there was merit in a visit to Hawaii without the need to clear customs and immigration. The closure of the SoH starts the clock on that, and perhaps that is of zero importance now to the USA, or at least to the WH, who are probably preoccupied with the advance planning for November 3. China has the same existential condition that Japan had, which set off a resource grab to the South including the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia and more of Vietnam etc, the whole greater co-prosperity sphere thingy. That clock is ticking, thanks.

So, when your dear leader is talking about 20% of global energy, he might need to be corrected, as it isn't; It includes Russia, all of the Middle East, most of SEA at the very least, and that makes about 7.7 Billion individuals out of 8.0 that are going to be displeased. Vlad's xmas came early, giving him a say in the Middle East is the gift that keeps on giving.

Unfortunately, Amazon is not running any sales on popcorn at present, and as the SoH will affect the farmers of the USA, then that is a bit of a shame.

Congratulations on the regime change, the winning and the whining; I hope the fallout will be worth it. The new Ayatollah that is in place as a consequence of his dad, mother, wife, children being turned to pink frothy mush with a hint of meat shouldn't hold any grudges against the USA, surely! TSA, ICE etc can sleep well knowing that their CIC has acted to mitigate the risks to the citizens of the USA as surely that is one of the core imperatives of a leader of a nation, unless it is for grift and self enrichment and self gratification. Nothing new here, Hans Christian Anderson wrote about this almost 200 years ago... The Emperor's New Clothes.

Not even a cuddle after the unprotected sex that the WH has perpetrated on the world. Disappointed.

Moving E3s back into theatre while TACO's mate Vlad is passing on targeting information seems to be ill advised. If I was a crew of any of those aircraft I would be writing a sternly worded letter to my CIC.
Driving A10s back from the bone yard suggests that there is still some common sense remaining in command levels, replacing the F-22 on site with the A10 says a lot, as the replacement for the F-35 is also, an A10. Pretty sure that Qatar might ask for their B748 back, they are being stabbed in the eye by the actions of the one they were "negotiating" with. MBS and Saudi may just feel the same way, they can use their 2.0B under management by the WH's incumbents Son in Law to better purpose given they are being handed over to Iranian hegemony.

It's still March, Xmas seems to be coming early this year for some.

For the record, I have offered capability enhancement to the US DOD, I am not against the USA, I think that invasion of Iran is a terrible idea, however, every other option that exists is far worse. This is the Benni & Taco show, they thought this was a good idea, and I am curious as to what they envisage "winning" to look like. A closed SoH with the whole of the Middle East under the control of Vlad and the rather irritated Ayatollah would seem to not be a brilliant option.

"Go get your own oil" is not a polite exit strategy.