Week 5....things are getting wobbly
POTUS statements are erratic....that's how he is. We should not look to these statements for the future direction of things.
Contrarian market traders may however see patterns.
It is more interesting to follow CENTCOM briefings and watch the body language and commentary of those around the President.
I get the impression there is a major wobble coming. The US air campaign is running into a cul-de-sac. It has trashed the vast majority of stuff it can trash in the military sense. What the Iranians have left is well dispersed, well hidden and the LoE required for further degradation of their capability is huge. And you cant bomb an ideology. However, intuitively, they don't need to preserve much to put the Strait at risk going forward.
The US is faced with a very difficult choice. The economic impact is building by the day, at home and abroad. The buffer of oil at sea before the war and the release from strategic reserves is getting depleted rapidly. With no resolution, we are heading for rationing and $150 oil. Lucky it's Summer for a few months.
The US options going forward are all pretty bad. Anything involving boots on the ground looks like a !!!!! show in the making. It's too hot to put USN in the Strait and Air looks increasingly limited in the context of Iran only needing to get lucky with the odd pop up.
Everyone will agree....something will need to be done...but what? Well, something, obviously.
I worry that US political leadership will bounce US military into another "no good option" scenario.
If only the politicos in charge weren't a few kangaroos short in the top paddock.