Change in leadership: does this have an impact on operations?
DUBAI, March 24 (Reuters) - Iran named a former Revolutionary Guards commander and senior figure in the hardline political faction on Tuesday to replace the powerful head of the Supreme National Security Council, Ali Larijani, killed in U.S.-Israeli strikes last week. Mohammad Baqer Zolqadr was appointed as Larijani's successor as secretary of the SNSC, the Iranian president's deputy of communications posted on X on Tuesday.
This looks a little like changing the Sec Def? With the "Mosaic" strategy already being discussed, I will offer a "not going to change much" in terms of mil ops.
As to the Islands: what the US has established is air superiority, but not air dominance, over the Persian Gulf.
Why do I make that assessment?
(1) MANPADS on the Iranian defensive side are going to be used, and (2) the usual issue of drones and cruise missiles are asymmetric efforts using the airspace over the proposed battlespace. SAM threat otherwise appears to be negligible, and Iranian Anti Air Artillery may be too limited in range to impact the airspace.
The Three Islands in Question: it would appear that the operational concept is to control them and thus establish greater security over the shipping lanes behind them. (Along the Saudi and Omani coast) Reduce the risk profile of oil tankers moving toward the SOH.
Interesting idea, no idea of the details.