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Old 18th March 2026 | 18:32
  #4036 (permalink)  
Tu.114
 
Joined: Feb 2009
Posts: 943
Likes: 441
From: Austria
So where is the exit here?

Iran cannot and will not surrender as long as the present theocracy is in power. The present governments whole raison d´ętre is resisting the US and Israel, they have spent substantial money, ressources and efforts for this instead of for improving their own country. Irans history is full of foreign powers trying to meddle with it and there is a certain dislike for a further attempt to be expected.

One thing they are not: stupid. They know their hand and are playing it, hitting the attackers where it pains them (Chrushchevs word on Berlin being situated somewhere below the equator on the Wests anatomy and receptive to a good squeeze come to mind) and while their internal organisation is still intact, they have no reason to fold. A system that had 45 years to stabilise itself and plan for this very moment will not fall after being decapitated. And plan they did, the autonomy of the individual Pasdaran units that are free to attack at will without high command ordering them is but one example for structural resilience. Hydra has many heads.

The US and Israel find it hard to stop their attacks as well. Just tucking ones tail in without a victory is not what Mr Trump and Mr Netanyahu are likely to do, even if no real, consistent reason for the war or what would constitute a victory in their eyes has been communicated. This would smack of failure, which both of those alpha males can ill afford or stomach. Mr Trump has elections coming up, the polls are probably not to his liking, and to have wagered and lost a war after having been elected on "America first", "No more foreign wars" and so on is unlikely to get him more votes, gerrymandering or not. Also, Mr Netanyahu will have elections sometime, and judging from his scraping the barrel for a coalition after the last one probably will not like to have a failure attached to his name.

Painted into a corner they all are. I am afraid that this will go on for a long time.
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