Originally Posted by
Ronald Reagan
Would a full scale ground invasion of Iran be successful in removing the regime?
The question is irrelevant, since that has not been prepared for.
Could Gulf Arab states be persuaded to take part?
Even if they could (I doubt it) their capability in the offensive role is in question.
Originally Posted by
Ronald Reagan
Going forward if the regime is left in power it will continue to be a problem in the region
That's right.
Same Stuff, Different Decade.
Originally Posted by
Uncle Fred
Am I perhaps in error?
Nope, and glad you dropped in.
Originally Posted by
larssnowpharter
Iran's primary war aim could reasonably be defined as : Maintaining its current form of government. The sacrifice of much of its military and infrastructure in pursuit of this aim is, therefore, considered rational. {the rest in a spoiler}
The question then arises, "how does Iran achieve this?"
Iran has been preparing for this was for a generation and has adopted a defence strategy based on "mosaic defence" which we have seen in effect ion recent days. In its simplest form this is a layered defence which prioritises layered resistance with heroic resistance against a militarily superior enemy.
Military objectives will include raising the security and economic costs to the aggressor to unacceptable levels, destruction of supporting infrastructure, closing the Straits of Hormuz and successful attacks on Israel. The list goes on. Expect terrorist attacks to follow.
In contrast the war aims of the Israel/USA coalition are less clear and, likely, different for each co-belligerent. It's probably fair to discard DT's statement of "unconditional surrender". I suspect the military aim of the US was something along the lines of , " Eliminate Iran's ability to pursue conventional or non- conventional warfare". Israel would likely have added, "The destruction of the Islamic State."
So where does this leave us?
I suspect the current nastiness to continue for an indeterminate time, Israel and the USA will continue to successfully attack Iranian military and infrastructure. Iran will continue to make things costly for Israel, the USA and the GCC nations. The price of gasoline in the USA (and the rest of the World) will rise and the Republican Party will fear defeat in the mid term elections. The GCC states and most of the rest of the World - with the notable exception of Russia - will pressure the USA to end the conflict.
Trump will declare victory based on the damage caused to Iran and Iran will have achieved its aim of maintaining its regime but will be even more certain that it needs to acquire nuclear weapons to prevent future attacks.
A reasonable assessment. Some slight disagreement as regards Israeli objectives.
1. Harming Iran and thus doing damage to hezbollah by reducing Iran's capacity to support Hezbollah
2. Reduce Iranian capability to launch ballistic missiles at Israel.
The concurrent operations in southern Lebanon, and Lebanese government's declaration last week that Hezbollah's military operations were illegal, though the state currently lacks the capacity to disarm the group on its own, aren't getting as much coverage...but it is directly related to the Iranian threat (via proxy)to Israeli security that has BFA to do with oil in the Gulf.