Originally Posted by
mahogany bob
Posts above all very gloomy !
Possible negotiating stance
we will stop bombing you IF you keep shipping lanes open
even the mad mullahs must like that ?
could AND stop supporting terrorism be included or is that out of control / impossible to negotiate ?
back to square one except Iran’s military threat severely downgraded - nuclear threat put back years ?
and revolution more likely in time ?
so a partial victory for Donald ! and gives us time for technology to cheaply counter the drone threat
here’s ( naively ) hoping !
Why would this be of interest to Iran?
You would expect that the highest value targets in Iran have been hit, perhaps more than once, and now the U.S. and Israeli's are working down the list of lower value targets.
In contrast, Iran's regime has survived so far, and seemingly has a supply of drones and missiles to keep hitting their neighbours. All of whom are working through their stocks of expensive interceptors. Why would Iran want the war to stop, potentially to restart whenever the U.S. and Israel want, but with better drone and mine countermeasures?
The downsides of this war dragging on for Iran do not seem significant now.
The downsides of this war dragging on for the U.S. economy, world economy and the economy of Iran's neighbours is massive. And this is not just oil and gas pushing up energy bills. The world economy is addicted to debt (news to no one here!), especially in shaky private credit markets and the AI buildout. Inflation results in higher interest rates, which pushes up returns on government bonds, which pushes institutional money there rather than into private credit (debt). Which can bring the whole house of cards around private credit down. The U.S. economy only grew in 2025 because of the AI data centre buildout! Even if the U.S. decides it won't increase interest rates, governments around the world will, and that will mean an outflow of money from the U.S. This is all simple, first order economic impact, not just all the hidden and complex stuff.
If I were an Iranian leader, I'd just let this play out, allow the pain of oil & gas price increases and the risk of inflation to rise, and the pain of stock markets declining and the U.S.'s MAGA base getting unhappy. Then go for a comprehensive ceasefire that rolls back sanctions on Iran with a renegotiated Nuclear agreement. If the Iranian's are particularly ballsy, ask for reparations to fix the damage to civilian infrastructure like oil refineries.
The longer this goes on, the side that is winning is not the one dropping bombs with impunity.