Time in the Market vs Timing the Market
I've completed my PPL, aUPRT and am about 80% of the way through my ATPL theory exams. I'm completing the entire lot dual licence due to my ability to access an EU passport. I'm also working full-time in a job I enjoy, which has good T&Cs and is fairly recession proof with staff shortages and retirements. I'm also mid-30's, so aware age isn't necessarily on my side.
My original plan was to complete the remaining ATPL exams by the start of the summer and do the CPL/ME/IR on some of my days off since I get a nice handy 5-day weekend every 3 weeks with me being finished early next year. I could then do the APS-MCC during a period of annual leave. However, the whole Iran war situation is making me wonder whether I should drag things out over a much longer time period. I've got until early next year to finish the ATPL exams (started September 2025) and then a 3 year window to do the CPL/ME/IR followed by the APS-MCC.
I see the pros of sticking with the original plan as follows:
Less inflation risk, whilst I have quite a lot of my savings inflation-hedged the number of hedges are limited and come with their own risks.
Less likely to be affected by modular flying schools ditching dual-licence training due to things like EASA audit costs.
The ability to be airline-ready at very short notice if the market picks up quickly.
Some airlines don't seem to want people who started training before a certain date, so dragging the training out and qualifying at the "right time" might not yield the advantage it used to.
I see the pros of delaying things as follows:
Airlines generally seem to like people who have qualified shortly before the hiring window opens.
Fewer revalidations. Whilst I have the financial means to stay current, I'm aware the MEIR revalidations are not cheap.
If the flying schools are quiet then I might get better pricing/flexibility etc.
Either way, I could afford to stay current for an extended period of time whilst looking for the first commercial flying job due to my current career and the fact I'm not borrowing to fund flying training. Whilst I would consider instructing around my current job, I wouldn't give my current role up unless I were to go into airline/corporate/specialist work with decent T&Cs. I'm leaning towards sticking with the original training plan though I don't want to become one of the infamous "wannabe zombie army" that appeared circa. 2008 and possibly 2020.
Would like to hear any opinions and advice please.