Originally Posted by
Asturias56
That of course is the big question.
there are quite a few people on here who seem to think that Australia will finish up fighting China, and some seem to look forward to it. There are also those who would support the USA come what may. And those who can't face the idea that a very small set of armed forces may be a reasonable position for Australia. A constabulary force in your own (very large) backyard.
That's for Australia and Australians to decide - but I think the rest of us should point out the issues with the various choices.
It is appropriate for any nation to understand the risks and potential threats that exist to its own interests. Not do so would be negligent to the level of being a dereliction of duty. Oz will have contingencies for many scenarios, and the SCS, PRC and the region would be a reasonable addition to any analysis. China is a curious country, with a rich history, that has some interesting characteristics.
Mongolia did its bit in spreading DNA about a fair chunk of the planet, and nowadays is an interesting place to spend a few days at, other than in mid winter, when the reason the hordes went cross country becomes self evident. The rest of the dynasties of the Middle Kingdom, Qin, Han, Tang, Qing, and the other 9 or 10 dynasties were for the most part busy sorting out their own mess, the majority of conflicts were internal. China has a beef with Taiwan, which is not over the island, that has never been a part of China proper. The nationalist Chinese under Chiang Kai-Shek's KMT were not Boy Scouts, but they opposed Mao Zedong and the CCP, and no love was lost in the exercise. Mao did his bit to set back China by a couple of centuries with the cultural revolution, which was another ground hog day, with a different ribbon to forerunners.
China has been successful as it determined that the PRC's CCP could do well by having a hybrid capitalism with communist political control, and that has been fairly successful, until one dude came along and decided that the never again dynasties, was given the heave ho, in a amazingly public manner not so long ago. So, now we got an emperor in all but name. Xi, in strengthening his power base has ended up being pretty effective at ferreting (pandering?) out some spectacular corruption that even rhetoric Russians would blush over. The reported water in propellant tanks of ICBMs was but one example, legions of soldiers being on books and not in boots was another.
As annoying as the wiggles on the map are to cartography, and the continued harassment of the Pinoy's navy, the fundamental issue that the PRC is a net importer of food from the countries that it irritates, and has an energy import problem through chokepoints, it also is conflicted in being happy with urbanisation and affluence which is put at risk by its actions in the SCS and towards Taiwan.
All up, and having lived and worked in China, my view is that the term Chinese Fire Drill was quite apt where the government is involved, whereas, anything in the way of commerce is well done, so long as the CCP is not messing with the omelettes, as it has with the property market within and without its own territory. China has 3 ignition sources, the SCS, Taiwan and the 2 bits of India that it continues to have spats with India.
The PRC has internal conflicts that exist from the diversity of the population, which bubbles away in the background, adding sauce to the feast that is China. Never dull.