There was an interesting article in the Guardian yesterday, covering the start of the war in Ukraine. The Brits and Americans could not convince the French, Germans, broader Europeans or the Ukrainians that war was coming. Even on the night of the invasion, the Germans didn't believe it! No one thought the Russians were that crazy. Plus, we had blotted our copybook with the 2003 Iraq invasion.
There is a track record of countries not believing another is going to do something insane. And you don't need to be a religious fundamentalist to do things few others in the world can understand.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng...e-plans-russia