Originally Posted by
Mal Drop
Early US intel assessment suggests strikes on Iran did not destroy nuclear sites, CNN reports
"WASHINGTON, June 24 (Reuters) - An early U.S. intelligence assessment indicated that the U.S. military strikes on three of Iran's nuclear facilities last week did not destroy the core components of Tehran's nuclear program and likely only set it back by months, CNN reported on Tuesday, citing three people briefed on it. "This alleged assessment is flat-out wrong," CNN quoted White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt as saying.!"
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle...es-2025-06-24/
Yes, I know it's CNN, and I know there is still to be an official release, but there is considerable difference between "totally obliterated" and "set it back by a few months".
The 'obliterationists' seem increasingly shrill as the hours pass. There's an admirably cool and balanced overview at
The Times of Israel:
A preliminary US intelligence assessment has determined that US strikes over the weekend on Iranian nuclear facilities have set back Tehran’s program by only a matter of months, three sources with knowledge of the matter told Reuters.
The initial report was prepared by the Defense Intelligence Agency, the Pentagon’s main intelligence arm and one of 18 US intelligence agencies, said two of the sources, who requested anonymity to discuss classified matters.
The assessment found that Iran could restart its nuclear program in a matter of months, according to the three sources, one of whom said it estimated the earliest restart could be in one to two months.
The classified assessment is at odds with the statements of President Donald Trump and high-ranking US officials — including Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. They have said the weekend strikes, which used a combination of bunker-busting bombs and more conventional weapons, essentially eliminated Iran’s nuclear program.
...and much more.
If the voices of caution are vindicated, I expect that Israel will have to cope as best it can without further US strikes on Iran. President Trump has very limited patience for complex issues which demand sustained effort from him. He also hates to be perceived as a failure in any way. He will, I think, drop this crisis and move on to something else. I hope that Israel will continue to benefit from US intelligence data on Iran.