Originally Posted by
Coupez
How is this clear? What if they have all the components of a Hiroshima bomb but haven't assembled it yet?
Here's something to think about: Little Boy was about 10 feet long, less than 3 feet in diameter, and weighed approximately 5 tons. I don't believe it was radioactive enough to require special protection for the aircrew, so probably not readily detectable from any distance.
How many different delivery vehicles are there for a package of that size and weight? Doesn't have to be an aircraft - although many commercial airliners would do. Doesn't have to have a bomb bay if you have suicidally inclined volunteers.
And yes Tehran would be a smoking hole if it was used - but think about how small Israel is. One Hiroshima sized detonation over Tel Aviv would cripple the country. Another one in the Haifa area might be fatal.
If I were Israel, I'd be doing a full court press to find that enriched uranium - and confiscate or destroy it.
Yes, you are correct - such a bomb would not require crew shielding.
But there is no way on earth an un-authorised commercial airliner, let alone one carrying a Hiroshima type weapon would be able to get anywhere near Israeli airspace without the IAF knowing and shooting it down first.
The Hiroshima gun-type weapon would therefore need to be surface delivered, by a truck (it's 10 feet long, 2 feet wide and weighs 4.4 tons).
There might be a remote chance of such a truck making it's way into a major Israeli population centre undetected by the Israeli army, Shin Bet, the Aman or Mossad.
If it was then detonated, then yes it would cause widespread devastation in a densely populated city like Tel Aviv (having been there).
Likelihood? Mossad's human intelligence in Iran is such that it knew the location of the Iranian military leaders and scientists'
bedrooms in the buildings it struck. Not just the building, the exact side and height of the building where to strike.
Israel is being fed measurement and signature intelligence by the US, and has it's own highly capable imagery and signals intelligence capabilities.
I highly doubt the likelihood of such a device being able to be delivered in reality - unless I am missing something.