MM .......as has been said here before, spending is no defence against political considerations.
My opinion is that neither Waddo or ISK have the space to maintain all the capabilities that the future RAF will require so they are probably both safe.
As for your 2010 predictions ..do you have an inside track? TCW at Scampton is a strong rumour, although I'm not sure what Lincoln council and the locals would think of increased noise, especially if there are no pretty patterns in the sky.
St Mawgan will never be home to loud a/c again. Tourism will see to that.
All we know is "nothing is certain."