You are bidding against 20,000 people for 60 slots.
Those that are truly motivated and put huge effort into the process likely 1 in 20, and by that I mean many hours/days crafting an application or finding another way to move ahead no matter the cost/effort, the other 19 likely 50% are unmotivated/automated/didn't read the requirements such as nationality (zero chance) and 50% have an interest in aviation but are simply not focused/hungry/motivated enough to do much else and won't cry if they are rejected.
It's not a straight probability question/answer here at play.