Originally Posted by
tdracer
In response to the last large attack on Israel, Iran got whumped pretty hard -
Iran's political leadership did three things of note in their recent strikes on Israel.
1. They telegraphed them, and to a certain extent pulled their punches. For Political Reasons.
2. They publicly demonstrated the capacity and will to do it.
3. They were able to play to the home crowd and showed them that they would strike.
BANANAS:
I suspect the IRGC approach to USA troops in the region is not dissimilar.
Yes, that's the hand they have been playing since about 2004. In other news, fish swim in the ocean.
Sometimes that approach has bitten them (they lost a leader over that) while at other times they've gotten to enjoy
counting coup here and there.
Play is continuous. Nothing is over. This game has been going on for a long time.
You remember Ernest and Will?
My concern over President Trump's latest bluster is that he may have, or may feel that he has, rhetorically backed himself into a corner. Having been very overt about stuff moving into theater, he may believe that unless he does something (and who knows what that ultimately is?) he's harmed his
Maximum Pressure policy on Iran.
I will guess - based on my own experiences - that one of the courses of action that has been offered to him from the pol/mil planning team is to lay waste to a large portion of Houthi stuff in Yemen sometime soon
as a demonstration aimed at Iran. Demonstrations are a tool in the political box. That will play a bit to the home crowd, and will get the news media to take lots of pics of stuff blowing up and burning, and will satisfy his urge to make a spectacle.
But that's
a guess. I will take no money to Vegas on that bet.
Further that though, though, I have no confidence in the coherence of his decision making.