Ryanair have today revised their forecasts for S25 downward, due to 737max delivery delays. And have also said that growth this year will now be reallocated to focus on Poland/Sweden/Italy for tax/financial incentive reasons.
More likely with constrained growth this summer, they're using the EU aircraft as outlined above to maximise return. Brexit may be a red herring here. But the UK government are definitely not incentivising airline traffic growth currently.
While B737 production is recovering from Boeing’s strike in late 2024, we no longer expect Boeing to deliver sufficient aircraft ahead of S.25 to facilitate FY26 traffic growth to 210m passengers. Boeing delays have forced us to revise our FY26 traffic target to 206m (just 3% growth). We’re hopeful that the remaining 29 Gamechangers in our 210 orderbook will deliver before March 2026, enabling us to recover this delayed traffic growth in S.26 instead of S.25. Boeing expects the MAX-10 to be certified in late 2025 which, we hope, will facilitate a timely delivery of our first 15 MAX-10s in Spring 2027 (as contracted).
Over the coming year, we’ll reallocate this scarce capacity growth to those regions and airports (in Poland, Sweden and Italy) who are investing in growth by cutting/abolishing aviation taxes, and incentivising traffic growth. Almost all of our S.25 capacity is now on sale.
Ryanair Financial Update 27 January 2025