Reduction in uniformed numbers: 99% certain.
Commensurate reduction in commitments: 0% likelihood.
Good redundancy packages: 0% chance.
Any reundancy package: 5% chance.
'Rightsizing' through natural wastage: 95% likely.
Death of a scottish base: ?
But my gut feeling is that I wouldn't be buying a house near Coltishall at the moment...