https://understandingwar.org/backgro...-august-2-2024
Iran Update, August 2, 2024
....CTP-ISW defines the “Axis of Resistance” as the unconventional alliance that Iran has cultivated in the Middle East since the Islamic Republic came to power in 1979. This transnational coalition is comprised of state, semi-state, and non-state actors that cooperate to secure their collective interests. Tehran considers itself to be both part of the alliance and its leader. Iran furnishes these groups with varying levels of financial, military, and political support in exchange for some degree of influence or control over their actions. Some are traditional proxies that are highly responsive to Iranian direction, while others are partners over which Iran exerts more limited influence....
Iran and its Axis of Resistance may target US forces in Syria as part of a retaliatory strike for Israel killing several Axis of Resistance leaders, including Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh. Euphrates Post reported that Iranian-backed Iraqi militias Kataib Hezbollah, Sayyida al Shuhada, and Harakat Ansar Allah al Awfiya deployed fighters to eastern Syria on July 31 “with the aim of targeting the International Coalition bases in Hasakah Governorate. Euphrates Post sources in Homs Governorate reported that unspecified Iranian-backed fighters have moved “heavy equipment” and rocket launchers from militia warehouses in Jabal al Mazar into the desert east of Palmyra.......
Iran is likely considering its ability to maintain nuclear deterrence against Israel as it plans its retaliatory strike against Israel. Iranian nuclear deterrence against Israel most likely requires that Iran demonstrate a reasonable ability to strike Israeli territory with a delivery device capable of carrying a nuclear warhead. Iran’s April 2024 attack on Israel demonstrated it is not capable of effectively penetrating Israeli air defenses. The Iranians may shape this attack deliberately to try to establish that they can, indeed, get a nuclear-capable missile to a target in Israel. That course of action would require strike planning to focus on ensuring that the ballistic missiles succeed in hitting at least some of their targets and would not be satisfied if only drones or small missiles penetrated Israeli and partner air and missile defenses.
Anonymous Western intelligence sources told Sky News Arabia that Iran and Lebanese Hezbollah may attack Israel on the Jewish holiday Tisha B’Av on August 12-13 in retaliation for Israel killing Ismail Haniyeh.[8] Tisha B’Av commemorates the destruction of the First and Second Temples and is widely considered a day of sadness and tragedy. An Iranian-Hezbollah attack on this date would come about 12-13 days after Israel killed Haniyeh on July 31. Iran similarly waited 13 days before retaliating against Israel in April 2024 for killing senior IRGC commander Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi.
US and UK officials have engaged Israel to affirm support and coordinate defensive action in preparation for an Iranian-led attack on Israel. US President Joe Biden spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu by phone on August 1 and reaffirmed the United States’ commitment to supporting Israeli security. Biden discussed US efforts to support Israel ”against ballistic missiles and drones,” including new defensive US military deployments.
US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin spoke with Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on August 2 and discussed the United States’ ongoing and future defensive force posture changes in support of Israel. The US Department of Defense announced that Austin had not yet decided which forces to deploy.
Israeli officials also engaged with their UK counterparts on August 2. Gallant met with UK Secretary of State for Defense John Healy to discuss creating a coalition of states in Israel’s defense against Iran and Iranian-backed militias. IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi and UK Army Chief of Staff Admiral Tony Radakin conducted a joint assessment and discussed UK-Israeli cooperation in the region.....