Dilbert, not sure if I agree that it used to be always good. Just look at past crises, prices did fluctuate in the past heavily before, SARS and handover as examples. In regard to price trend, how realistic is it to buy at exactly the bottom? We all try, but in reality it does not work like that. If you look at the HK house price index it actually rose last month. Prices reflect expectations, so by definition if you want to buy at the bottom you will have to buy at a time people are pessimistic. Still most think there is a point in time where the prices are low AND the outlook good. No such thing, not in real estate nor stock market.The strange thing with real estate ( or stocks) is that somehow lower prices seem to stop some people from buying. Just imagine the same effect with other goods, like tomatoes or a TV.
From experience, whenever and wherever you buy you take a risk and it is initially painful.The mistake in my opinion is to wait for the perfect moment, for too long.
https://www.house730.com/en-us/market-data/
Dingleberry, did you buy in Dubai? Prices increased there by almost 80% last 3 years. Would you trust this market more? I personally probably buy as well if I lived there, but was wondering if you see Dubai real estate as a safer bet. There was a significant russian money rush into the country after western sanctions, which could dry up or go the other direction again. Then no scarcity of land and enormous supply in the pipeline everywhere down there. Then you have Saudia emerging as cash-rish competitor. They will try everything they can to lure local HQ's and financial firms to Riad. Then the vicinity to a constant war zone.Then the unknown quality of future rulers. They are after all not selected by merits but purely by birthright, the next guy could well be a useless spoiled brat.Then climate change which will see the region go above 50 degress on a regular base soon and (ironically) flooding with no drainage facilities installed anywhere. Without local intelligence, this looks a lot more speculative to me than HK.
Last edited by corporal klinger; 16th June 2024 at 02:41.