Starting the thread as Musk has started the clock running at 3 years/2027.
Mars launch windows.
In order to reach orbit, Starship had to be accelerated by about 9 km/s. Based on staging velocity and rough estimate of gravity losses, the Superheavy booster contributed about 3km/s of that. That is staging a little early as rockets go but it is necessary for booster recovery.
So Starship gave itself around 6km/s of extra velocity after staging in a single continuous burn.
What I think is throwing off ordinary people's intuitions about the timetable for Mars is that they think in terms of how far away it is, not the energy require to get there. Most Mars transfers require much less than a 6km/s change in velocity, so Starship has already demonstrated the required capability. All it needs is its tanks topping up to it can do it starting from Earth orbit and not from low velocity in the atmosphere.
There are a lot of technical issues going to Mars - but if @SpaceX can crack on-orbit refuelling in 2025 then in the 2026 window there is no physical reason they can't start taking shots on goal.
