https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/0...cket-launches/
Air Force is “growing concerned” about the pace of Vulcan rocket launches
US military seeks an "independent review" to determine if Vulcan can scale.
…..For several years there have been rumblings about Air Force and Space Force officials being unhappy with the delays by United Launch Alliance, as well as with Blue Origin, which is building the BE-4 rocket engines that power Vulcan's first stage.
However, these concerns have rarely broken into public view.That changed Monday when
The Washington Post reported on a letter from Air Force Assistant Secretary Frank Calvelli to the co-owners of United Launch Alliance, Boeing, and Lockheed Martin.
In the letter sent on May 10, a copy of which was obtained by Ars, Calvelli urges the two large aerospace contractors to get moving on certification and production of the Vulcan rocket.
"I am growing concerned with ULA’s ability to scale manufacturing of its Vulcan rocket and scale its launch cadence to meet our needs," Calvelli wrote. "Currently there is military satellite capability sitting on the ground due to Vulcan delays. ULA has a backlog of 25 National Security Space Launch (NSSL) Phase 2 Vulcan launches on contract."
These 25 launches, Calvelli notes, are due to be completed by the end of 2027. He asked Boeing and Lockheed to complete an "independent review" of United Launch Alliance's ability to scale manufacturing of its Vulcan rockets and meet its commitments to the military.
Calvelli also noted that Vulcan has made commitments to launch dozens of satellites for others over that period, a reference to a contract between United Launch Alliance and Amazon for Project Kuiper satellites…..
That may be easier said than done. Vulcan's second certification mission was supposed to be the launch of the Dream Chaser spacecraft this summer. However, as Ars reported last month, that mission will no longer fly before at least September, if not later, because the spacecraft is not ready for its debut.
As a result, Space News reported on Monday that United Launch Alliance is increasingly likely to fly a mass simulator on the rocket's second flight later this year.
After certification, United Launch Alliance can begin to fly military missions. However, it is one thing to build one or two rockets, it is quite another to build them at scale.
The company's goal is to reach a cadence of two Vulcan launches a month by the end of 2025. In his letter, Calvelli mentioned that United Launch Alliance has averaged fewer than six launches a year during the last five years. This indicates a concern that such a goal may be unreasonable.
"History shows that new rockets struggle to scale their launch cadence in their early years," Caleb Henry, director of research at Quilty Space, told Ars. "Based on the number of missions the Department of Defense requires of ULA between now and 2027, precedent says Calvelli’s concerns are justified."