March
A changing narrative.
The improving trend in air traffic management outcomes was maintained over the last two months. In March, Airservices attributed capacity constraints affected 1.3 per cent of flights. Where GDP periods were implemented, four per cent of ground delay periods and one per cent of cancellations were attributable to Airservices, the lowest level in twelve months.
The consistency of air traffic service provision improved in March 2024. The overall variations to published services reduced by 80 per cent compared to the average trend in the previous 12 months, following concentrated efforts to maximise resource availability to protect peak demand periods. However further sustained efforts are needed to embed greater flexibility and resilience. This requires higher levels of resourcing (as compared to pre-pandemic) combined with transformation of processes and systems to meet long-term performance expectations.
Last month Avalon was reported as 13 events, 34 hours (and 20 flights) when it really was 87 events, 232 hours. This month the report says 95 events, 251.3 hours (and 163 flights).
Finally some analysis of OTP, with a caveat "Definition of metrics is preliminary and subject to change in subsequent releases", which is fair enough.
Understanding the building blocks of OTP
In efforts to understand the effects on OTP across the actors in the aviation ecosystem, we are applying the IATA delay attribution framework in consultation with industry to establish the building blocks of OTP. Our preliminary analysis has identified that typically, previous rotation delays contribute to 33 per cent of subsequent flight arrival delays, while disruptions during the first rotation of the day can potentially cause up to 45 per cent of subsequent flight arrival delays in the morning. Throughout the day, experience shows it is generally not possible to recover the impact given that 78% of major airlines’ fleet rotate through major airports multiple times a day.