Manchester-3

[sportzbar]

I'm just gonna throw this out there as an outside observer of the world between 2019 and today. I dont profess to be an expert and have no insider knowledge of the comings and goings of the industry but do follow the news pieces, forums and any other general information that comes about to form my opinion and here it is....

2019 was a very different world to today. Indeed Thomas Cook was thriving (well the airline was anyway) as a Manchester based longhaul airline with plans for expansion. Virgin wanted in on this too and also made great plans with promises of a Club House because they could see a that with extra flights the critical mass would be there to make such a venture possible. Back in 2019 the market going West was there. Sure the Dollar wasn't as it was a few years before but visits to the USA were affordable and profitable.

Then in September 2019 Thomas Cook was sadly taken from us by the collapse of the parent company (caused by bad financial decisions eventually catching up but that's another story). Virgin saw this as an opportunity and doubled down with the promise of extra flights. They just needed the aircraft...

But then in March 2020 (earlier for some countries), the world changed with COVID and national lockdowns. Everything changed. EVERYTHING. The way we work, the way we shop, the way we travel.

Fast forward to today, five years after 2019 and indeed there are signs that Manchester has recovered in passenger numbers to what they were in 2019. But the passengers aren't travelling to the USA in great numbers anymore. It's too expensive. People want more for their money and they are finding it in other places that the USA.

Maybe that's why the US carriers haven't come back? Manchester has always been an out bound market to the USA. But that market has shrunk now. That's fact.

The biggest market for Virgin has always been the USA. They were set up by Branson to compete with BA on transatlantic and the odd service elsewhere that could make a few quid. In 2019 that odd service was Manchester mainly going west with the odd India service thrown in.

But the reality I see now in 2024, is that Manchester has become even more leisure orientated than it was in 2019 and those passengers are more price sensitive, even taking into account frequent fliers, than the previous clientle.

Virgin are heavily in debt and as a business they should do everything they can to pay down that debt before embarking on what is (in my opinion) a massive risky investment in a Clubhouse at Manchester for a few premium passengers. Perhaps that's the reality and that promise has to be broken.....