Meanwhile, what of the Ferranti Mercury [ours was called Meteor] forecast outputs using a three atmospheric level model operating on Europe and the western Atlantic? Whereas the essential equations [including those of water, always a big problem] were known, there was zero operational value. There were two problems, insuperable at the time, and originating in the slow and limited valve computer. One was the finite boundaries, from which errors spread alarmingly into the area of interest. The other was slowness; by the time a model run was completed, real time was past the time of the prediction. We were still in the steam age, albeit international leaders. A faster computer was needed.
I arrived Home with a Cypriot driving licence, not valid here. That was understandable; such licences were only gained by the driving instructor bribing the examiner with my NAAFI whisky. The instructor then bribed the professional queuer [yes, truly, they occupied half the long queue] at the Licence Office with yet more whisky plus cash. I also came home with a car, a big deposit for a £2800 three-bed semi and two genuine Rolexes. I still have the watches but cannot afford maintenance. My £140 Seiko keeps better time.
The posting to Leeming was very fortunate. The S Met. O Roger was a well-spoken, well-dressed good man to work for. The customer was 3 FTS with their new JPs, and I am certain that we dealt with more than a few Meteor night fighters with cockpits like greenhouses. Roger did the lecturing [later it was called ‘teaching’] and three young forecasters covered whatever hours the flying programme demanded. I learned a harsh lesson in responsibility by going home to Thirsk an hour before the last night flight landed. The justifiable rollocking beat the arrogance out of my “but I was confident the weather would remain gin-clear”.
The boss’s morning entry at 0800 was routine: burst door open, break wind, and attempt to throw his brown trilby across the room on to the MoD hat-stand. His mood thereafter depended on failure or success. All the eastern Flying Training offices from Acklington through Leeming, Linton, Dishforth, Church Fenton, Strubby and Manby fell under the Main Met. Office at Manby. This office issued twice daily guidance which was habitually taken with a pinch of salt if one was a long-term resident at the relevant station. There was a permanent but manageable shortage of junior forecasters, so detachments of a couple of weeks were very frequent. In three years I served at nearly all, driving our only car and stranding my family. The early starts and late finishes would not be tolerated these days. Like most others, we had no telephone.
Promotion to Experimental Officer was not considered possible without about five years’ experience, and without suitable reports. Reports were not open then, and not for many years. Out of the blue I was sent on the Advanced Forecasting Course, a precursor to promotion. As I was only 27 this attracted a lot of comment, and I could only suppose that C Met O Nicosia had written something exceptional about me in the emergency, and Leeming and Manby failed to correct that impression. [For context, an XO, later called Higher Scientific Officer, paid Flt Lt Mess subs].
Flying and forecasting was tricky in westerlies, the dreaded ‘gap wind’ and lee waves causing nasty gusts and direction reversals. The best forecasters were the long-timers of course, and this included the RAF on the longer tours. I co-authored a research paper to de-mystify the phenomenon. Perhaps it helped.
Meanwhile a new and much faster computer was running on a tuned version of the old model and producing sensible, if not always reliable, surface pressure forecasts. Like all models, there was a constant incompatibility between the need to produce a forecast quickly enough to be useful, covering a long enough period, and at small enough scales to be other than broad brush. The peasants in the outfield were not privy to this output, and the advanced course merely filled in the empirical knowledge of broad-scale development and gave a chance to fail exams. So I came second again. To a Chinese if you wondered.
Topcliffe next stop