Originally Posted by
SplineDrive
So... how long until the Army decides that an armed, crewed scout helicopter is worth having and launches a new competition? If history holds, a program will appear in the 2028-2029 timeframe. Anyone think the defense OEMs will agree to cost-share the development this time around?
This is already starting. Northrop Grumman pulled out of the T-X competition, even after having flown a prototype of their entry in the program, because they felt that the program was not going to provide a decent return on what they'd have to invest. They said they were not going to bid on AF's NGAD program for similar reasons. Lockheed has intimated they may not submit a bid if the program doesn't make business sense. You might remember the various exercises AF went through to field a light turboprop attack aircraft for Special Operations and low intensity situations. Contractors had to come up with lots o money and go through multiple flight tests and demonstrations only to have AF decide each time, "eh, we're not interested after all--but thanks for all the money you put up.".
Given that this was the sixth attempt to replace the OH-58 I also wonder if in the future OEMs will be willing to put up a bunch of money up front for whatever comes next.