Scenario planning
if Jet2 were to ever get to 6 aircraft, then it would have an effect on what TUI can achieve from there. They would likely either remove one aircraft or close the base. Ryanair on the other hand may well also try and grow to perhaps 3 aircraft.
Winter seasonality
Currently there are only two ‘winter only’ destinations and those are Barbados and Geneva. Plenty of scope for significant expansion in the winter. This would aid the year-round expansion of based aircraft.
Long-haul & transitioning from minor to major regional airport
Barbados grew by 95% year in year, 2023 vs 2022, which is a route that could easily support a more regular weekly service. Mexico and Florida is also a possibility.
When BOH gets to a critical mass similar to that of Newcastle, then there is no reason why the airport can’t go after the likes of Emirates to Dubai, especially if London slots are scarce and the third runway at Heathrow doesn’t get built. BOH anticipated 4mppa should Heathrow’s 3rd runway not get built or 3mppa if it does.