Originally Posted by
wf747
From the latest AIPA Insights 21 March 2024:
What is clear from the recent casual catch-ups with our members is the depth of feeling that remains regarding how the Company has and continues to treat their pilots.
Interestingly though, the feelings aren't necessarily homogeneous, with the depth of emotion varied across bases, fleets and ranks. However, it continues to reinforce what we at AIPA have long suspected and continue to explain to Qantas management at every opportunity.
For many, those feelings manifest as frustration, whilst for others it is anger. It feels like years of industrial attacks have seen these emotions become intertwined with the DNA of the pilot body, as you wait for the long-promised change in attitude and behaviour to arrive.
You remain unsure of your value to the organisation, despite the platitudes and cookies.
Yet a quick glance at a few statistics regarding forecasted global pilot demand and the number of new commercial pilots being created in this country, tells you that the quicker Qantas takes advantage of the resource within its grasp the better.
Let’s start with the forecasted global demand from Boeing. May I preface these statistics by saying that clearly Boeing has an interest in pumping up required pilot numbers but even if they inflate the numbers, they remain significant. Also, these numbers assume no seismic geopolitical events or Qantas announcing we are flying to Chicago, as the earth tends to fall off its axis every time that idea is mooted.
Boeing predict that from 2023 until 2043, global demand for new pilots will reach 649,000. The Oceania region is forecast to need 10,000 new aircrew, the Middle East 58,000, North America 127,000 and the Asian region a whopping 250,000.
According to the most recent Civil Aviation Safety Authority (CASA) annual report the number of CPL/ATPL holders in Australia is around 12,500 (5700 CPL/6800 ATPL). This number has only increased by 1000 in the past ten years. The other concerning statistic is the number of new CPLs being issued each year, with only 350 CPL licences issued in the last 12 months, if you exclude those licences upgraded to ATPLs or issued to foreign students.
Like any complex problem, the reasons for the waning interest in the profession are many and nuanced. However, one significant factor has been the driving down of wages through the creation of various subsidiaries, which, when coupled with the ever-increasing costs of obtaining flying qualifications - now in the vicinity of $150,000 - has reduced the attractiveness of the profession.
A profession that now finds itself facing a future where supply will not keep up with demand. The numbers simply don’t lie.
We are all seeing the signs, the various canaries in the mine shaft. Subtle proposals for modifications to the A220 contract for NJS pilots to try and stem the continued pilot attrition, Jetstar unable to fill command positions, Jetconnect feeling the pinch as Air New Zealand ramp up recruitment across the ditch, the Network dispute out west and Emirates running roadshows in Australia whilst the rumours of bases in Australia for Qatar and Emirates continue to grow.
The long talked about pilot shortage may not be here yet, but the jungle drums beat louder every day.
The challenge is can those leading the Qantas Group recognise the pilot labour challenges before them and decide that genuine reform of the industrial landscape is needed. Reform to safeguard the asset that is their pilot community. Do they seek band aid solutions to stem the bleeding, or do they recognise the value of actually healing the wound?
AIPA continues to be “in the room” discussing this issue with Qantas management, suggesting solutions that ensure a vibrant aviation sector in this country for decades to come. Solutions that recognise your increasing value as the pilot global pool shrinks.
Qantas needs to discard previous industrial ideology to ensure this country has enough pilots to meet projected demand and to protect these assets, including you, from looking overseas for better opportunities, no matter what stage of your career.
Whether those in leadership positions within the company see the value in safeguarding their pilots rather than parking aircraft against a fence is for them to decide. But they can’t say they didn’t know or weren’t warned.
As we demand better leadership from Qantas management, equally we need to expect more from ourselves. We need to work together to ensure that when the pilot shortage crystalizes, we as a collective are ready to recognise our true worth.
Each of us needs to ask ourselves what small part will I contribute to the continued success of my association. What are you prepared to do to be part of the solution?
Can you nominate for CoM, or contribute to a portfolio (you don’t have to be a CoM to do that), or identify an area that AIPA can improve and help us achieve that? It may even be as simple as remaining highly engaged with what AIPA continues to achieve for you all.
We need all of our members to not only identify potential problems but to help AIPA fix them. We need to work together to strengthen our association. Stronger together is the only answer.
The time is now when Qantas needs to genuinely value its pilot workforce and understand that it must pay globally competitive wages to safeguard its ability to deliver the services expected of it by the Australian travelling public.
It needs to provide globally competitive wages to avoid having its workforce pillaged by foreign entities who have already grasped the value of not parking aircraft against a fence.
Only by standing side-by-side as a pilot community, can we work together to realise the value of our own worth and be rewarded for our expertise and professionalism. United we bargain, divided we beg. It is that simple.
The "industrial flexibility" supposedly created by having multiple pilot entities is now becoming a rod for the company's back. Will those now in charge be prepared to make the necessary change to attract and retain the pilots required over the next 20 years and beyond?
The pilot shortage both in Australia and globally, whilst gathering pace, remains at arm’s length to a certain degree. It is easy for decision makers to convince themselves it may not arrive or will be someone else’s problem in the future beyond the current bonus schedule.
However, now is the time for Qantas to change its business model of the past 15 years, a model that fundamentally damaged the profession, and instead work with their pilots to provide prosperity and security moving forward to safeguard the aviation industry.
In a country where aviation is a necessity, we have seen the piloting profession placed into a spiral dive. Time will tell whether those leading Qantas today adopt the mantra of “recognise, confirm, breathe” before ultimately deciding to “recover”.