Originally Posted by
FlyGatwick
I mostly agree with what you say, except for: Korean Air.
Korean Air and (to a lesser extent), Middle East Airlines.
Given that Korean Air is in the process of absorbing Asiana, its main home-grown rival, I think it unlikely that the relevant com petition authorities in the various jurisdictions in which both Korean Air and Asiana operate (and dominate as far as South Korean airlines are concerned), will agree to an expanded Korean Air to increase its dominance even further by increasing its footprint, even if that means adding additional capacity in the London market at Gatwick rather than Heathrow. Far more likely in my opinion is that respective competition authorities will encourage a new (full-service) long-haul airline like Air Premia to enter the UK - South Korea market. However, in my opinion, specifically regarding kaunching new services from Gatwick, it is unlikely that any airline based in Northeast Asia (other than China) would want to do this until the Russia-Ukraine conflict has been settled one way or another and Russian air space has reopened to all airlines given that Gatwick routes generally attract fewer premium. passengers than their Heathrow counterparts, who would help the airlines cover the additional expense of flying more circuitous routes skirting Russian airspace. Once Russian airspace is open to all airlines again, we could even see the likes of Japan Airlines relaunching flights to Tokyo Narita and Osaka Kansai from Gatwick as JAL is currently using its Heathrow slots to fly to Tokyo Haneda only.
Re Middle East Airlines, I'm not sure whether expanding their footprint in London is a near-term priority for them, especially given their unsettled neighbourhood.
Additionally, re Sri Lankan Airlines coming to Gatwick, I think it depends on whether the Sri Lankan government will be can successful in privarising the airline - a condition imposed by the IMF as part of the country's most recent bailout, with India's Tata conglomerate (the owners of Indian flag carrier Air India) rumoured to be interested in bidding for Sri Lankan according to Indian.media reports. The alternative, i.e. the Sri Lankan government failing to find a buyer for their airline, is likely to result in the airline being grounded and shut down as it's losses and accumulated debt have become unsustainable.
My additions to your list are as flows:
Starlux, the new, reportedly highly acclaimed Taiwanese full-service airline run by the same people who set up EVA Airways ca. 30 years ago: Gatwick-Taipei (probably using A350-900s).
Jetstar (instead of Qantas) if the Qantas group decides to maintain a one-stop UK-Australia air link once the project sunrise non-stops between Heathrow and the Australian east coast have started (now relortedly pushed back to 2026), should the Qantas group decide that there won't e sufficient premuim traffic left to make a one-stop service viable. In that case, the aircraft equipment would be a high-density Jetstar 787-8 instesad of a oremium-heavy Qantas 787-9 and the intermediate stop would more likely be Bangkok rather than Singapore.
Air Malaysia: Gatwick - Kuala Lumpur (maybe).
South African Airways: Gatwick-Joburg and Gatwick - Cape Town (the airline's financial situation permitting).
If Thai decide to come to Gatwick, they could launch flights to both Bangkok and Phuket (winter seasonal), with 787-9s probably doing Bangkok and-8s going to Phuket.
Similar to Thai, Vietnam Airlines could consider flying winter seasonally to Da Nang (in addition to serving Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi all-year round) should they decide to come to Gatwick.
Short-haul, I still would very much like to see an Air France - KLM group airline - preferably KLM - come to Gatwick if they could take over the slots to be vacated by Aer Lingus at the end of the month.
Could we perhaps see Aero Italia coming to Gatwick?
Vistara, as according to airline schedule analyst Sean Moulton, they seem to no longer have access to the five weekly slot pairs they're currently using at Heathrow to fly to / from Mumbai. They could potentially transfer this service to Gatwick, making use of the five weekly additional slot pairs ACL awarded sister airline Air India for this summer season, at least in the interim until Air India has decided whether they're going to reinstate their originally planned Gatwick-Bengaluru service.