At least ATSB is consistent in the application of its paradoxical logic. It’s able to foretell the probabilities of an investigation yielding new safety lessons or safety benefit, even in transport category incidents, before all of the facts are ascertained.
Given that there’s very little left under the aviation sun that hasn’t been learnt about the many and varied ways in which aviation accidents happen, one wonders why ATSB bothers at all. Just leave it to operators (and local police and coroners) to sort it out.
But, then again, I suppose we do ‘need’ ATSB’s ‘nothing to see here; everything’s under control; no systemic problems in ATC and safety regulation in Australia; just pilot error; everybody move on’ reports. They make us feel ‘safer’.