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Old 3rd March 2024 | 16:41
  #1046 (permalink)  
ORAC
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The mood of the nation, it is reported, is to ditch the clerics and bring back the Shah…

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/i...-son-h23nf785s

Iran elections: Why young Iranians would welcome return of Shah’s son

….
In place of this regime, what do Iranians want? For Western audiences trained to believe in the oriental complexity of Middle Eastern political sentiment, the answer is strangely ordinary. They want democracy, secularism, territorial integrity, civil and political freedom, and restoration of their national identity and culture. According to the majority, only one man can deliver these things: Iran’s crown prince, Reza Pahlavi, son of the late Shah.

The regime knows it will not fall because some dare to talk of women’s rights or ethnic separatism. Everyone in Iran knows what it is truly afraid of: the return of the Pahlavi dynasty which ruled the country from 1925 to 1979. For 44 years, state media did not mention the possibility of Pahlavi’s return; suddenly they have broken their silence, calling him the greatest threat to Iranian peace and security.

In the absence of official polls, hard data is elusive, but a recent survey conducted among Iranian citizens by researchers in the United States suggested that 80 per cent of respondents favoured the crown prince as leader of the country. Two Iranian academics in the Netherlands placed him top of a list of 24 candidates drawn from the regime and elsewhere.

In the regime’s own account, the majority of those detained during the 2022-23 protests advocated constitutional monarchy for Iran. Many of those jailed or executed were guilty of exhibiting the “lion-and-sun” flag, symbol of pre-1979 Iran; the first execution victim had tattooed it on his arm. The flag now circulates as social media code for restoration of the constitutional monarchy. Risking their lives, young people raise it above highways, or graffiti it on city walls, alongside slogans such as Javid shah — “Long live the king.

How could young protesters be so traditional? The answer, once again, is ordinary. Like young people everywhere else, they desire economic opportunity, social freedom, international peace, and ecological sustainability. And they think constitutional monarchy is the best route.….

As young Iranians look for alternatives, they are naturally fascinated by the progress made in the decades before 1979.

After a long period of breakdown, the Pahlavi dynasty reunified the country, introduced the rule of law and established modern parliamentary institutions. The reign of Pahlavi’s father saw dramatic social development: expanded literacy, freedom of religion, rights and protections for women and children. (These protections were thrown out in 1979, when long-outlawed practices such as child marriage, polygamy and unilateral divorce by men were authorised again.) Iran under the Shah was — like other fledgling democracies of the time — less democratic than Britain. But it was immeasurably freer than what replaced it.

Large infrastructure projects, the nationalisation of forests and pasturelands, profit-sharing by industrial workers and land reforms produced rapid economic growth: GDP grew at an average of 8.8 per cent, increasing three-fold, between 1960 and 1978.

Such progress was abruptly aborted in 1979; Iranians hope that, with a new Pahlavi era, it might be resumed. The crown prince’s popularity derives in part from the connection he provides to a lost process of political progress, and indeed to a lost national identity. Protesters of all political hues have rallied behind his proposals for a secular, democratic Iran. He promises “peace and reconciliation” for the country’s transition and a founding referendum in which all Iranians, regardless of religious and political views, can select their preferred form of governance.

But Pahlavi is not only a symbol of a previous epoch. His peace visit to Israel in April 2023 convinced many Iranians that he might be capable of ending one of the Middle East’s structural enmities, and so making a decisive contribution to 21st-century peace. His interest in water conservation, and in a post-fossil fuel energy plan, persuades many that he can institute a government of the future, and not just the past.

Some may still find return of the monarchy a surprising fixation for a youthful movement. But to young Iranians neighbouring republics such as Iraq or Syria are significantly more depressing than Middle Eastern monarchies. Given the ancient political traditions that are so much part of their national identity, Iranians also hope to avoid the flaws of other monarchies in the region: to be closer to Britain than Saudi Arabia.


Despite this weekend’s hollow election, the Islamic Republic is unlikely to withstand another nationwide uprising. Iranians are seizing upon a replacement who can unite the country under the banner of secular democracy. At the time of writing, there is only one such candidate. Surprising though he may be.
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