Originally Posted by
NutLoose
In one, I believe if Ukraine had never given up their massive nuclear capabilities
That milk was spilled 30 years ago. (The year is 2024. Do keep up).
It was seen at the time as a great success in supporting the NPT and in the whole world backing away from the nuclear precipice we'd been hanging on during the 45+ years of the Cold War. Parallel to that, both the US and Russia reduced their nuclear arms, and reduced their armaments in general.
A couple of my close colleagues served terms in the Pentagon in the 90's during the great disarmament. They traveled to Russia as a part of that cooperative effort in the observer / documenter role. (
Trust but verify and all that).
Why you choose to fail to understand the context of that deal is beyond me. You were alive then, just as I was.
What should we have given Ukraine? More intel sharing, and sooner.
Just read a bit in FP about the "declassify and share" thing which happened about .. two days before the Russians rolled their tanks.
The Russians started mobilizing in October (heck, a bit sooner than that).
From that article (likely beyond a paywall)
By Brett M. Holmgren, the U.S. assistant secretary of state for intelligence and research
I will never forget Feb. 22, 2022. That evening, I joined U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken in a secure room in the State Department for a meeting of cabinet-level and other senior members of the National Security Council (NSC). The customary intelligence briefing at the top of the meeting contained a stark warning: Russia was poised to commence its anticipated full-scale invasion of Ukraine.In the preceding months, the United States had been strategically downgrading and declassifying intelligence to warn Ukraine—and the world—about Russia’s plans. That night at the State Department, NSC leadership concluded that we needed to share our new urgent threat information with Ukraine immediately.
It just so happened that Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba was in the building following earlier meetings with Blinken. Blinken, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, and Director of National Intelligence (DNI) Avril Haines asked me and Haines’s deputy for analysis, Morgan Muir, to leave the NSC meeting and work with intelligence agencies to clear language that could be shared with Ukraine. After receiving clearances, we located Kuleba on the seventh floor of the State Department and relayed the news. With a look of despair on his face, Kuleba called Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to prepare their nation for war.
In the end, exposing Russia’s plans in advance did not avert war. But U.S. intelligence disclosures enabled Ukraine to defend itself, mobilized allies and partners to support Kyiv, undermined Russian disinformation in the eyes of the public, and restored the credibility of U.S. intelligence—and of the United States—in the eyes of the world. If the Iraq War highlighted the risks of intelligence diplomacy, Russia’s war in Ukraine showcased its opportunities.
Why our leadership chose to hold back on intel sharing until that close to the operation starting boggles my mind.
A few weeks earlier would have allowed for better prep in Ukraine.
FWIW, one of the Baltic states (Estonia?) apparently shared some key intel around the start of the war that helped Ukraine foil the air assault into and around Kiev during the early days of the conflict. Can't find the article at the moment.