THREAD: a Russian analysis of EU military capability
“Above all, SVR analysts predict that Europe will take 15yrs to rebuild its own stocks, at least!
For more than a decade, Russia will therefore consider that Europe is vulnerable & it intends to take advantage of it”…
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The Russian SVR (equivalent to our DGSE) has released an in-depth analysis of European military capabilities.
Spoiler alert: the result is catastrophic.
Let me explain how they got there and why it's such a big deal for us.
First of all, the GU (Russian military intelligence) has the habit of observing factory production to draw up an inventory of our resources. The SVR did it differently: they noted the figures for deliveries to Ukraine and the compared to those announced.
They were thus able to determine the production of each national industry, and compare it with Ukrainian needs. They were therefore able to see the delta between what Ukraine needs and what we can provide.
So much for the method, now for what their report says.
At the speed at which the Europeans are producing munitions, we will only be able to meet Ukraine's needs in 2025. So 3 years late, which is already quite shameful and catastrophic strategically speaking, but it is not all...
Above all, SVR analysts predict that Europe will take 15 years to rebuild its own stocks, at least! For more than a decade, Russia will therefore consider that Europe is vulnerable and it intends to take advantage of it.
The rest of the report encourages Kremlin decision-makers to capitalize on this weakness by taking “hybrid war measures” against Europe. The objective being to divide the Europeans, disperse their attention and secure a victory in Ukraine for Russia.
The GU would have reached the same conclusion, except that it established a list of munitions factories to monitor and potentially sabotage.
We are very late, Russia knows it, it sees it, and it is organizing itself to hurt us as much as possible. What does that mean exactly?
Already, this SVR analysis report is intended for the Kremlin and the National Security Council. It is from this type of documents that political decision-makers (Putin) will make decisions. This shows the importance.
The recommendations that the Kremlin will receive from its foreign intelligence service are literally to harm us as much as possible. Our weakness is identified, it is targeted and Russia just needs to press on the wound. So we are only at the beginning.
Then, the observation drawn up by the SVR is even worse than I thought: It will take us at least 15 years to rebuild our own stocks?! Realize the degree of Europe's unpreparedness for conflict after 2 years of war on its borders.
This report also comes right at a time when the risk of Donald Trump being re-elected is growing every week. And I remind you that Trump is ready to dynamite NATO, and it doesn't matter what Russia plans to do behind it. At least that's what he says.
The source of this information is the excellent intelligence journal
Intelligence Online. It should therefore be taken very seriously and gives us a good idea of the possible evolution of Russian-European relations in the years to come.
This is another opportunity to sound the alarm and force Europe to wake up and stop taking peace for granted. We are entering a new era where our naivety and our wait-and-see attitude will cost us enormously, at all levels.
We must not forget that during this time, Russian factories are running at full capacity and they are preparing for a direct confrontation. Without going into an arms race with Russia, we must invest massively and quickly in our common defense…
I'll give you the link to the article for those who can read it:
* [behind paywall]
https://www.intelligenceonline.fr/re...,110157230-art