UK MoD: current Russian tank loss rate in Ukraine war sustainable

Russia is able to produce at least 100 MBTs per month according to the UK’s Defence Intelligence, which means Moscow’s losses over the past quarter can be replaced.

Despite an increase in Russian main battle tank (MBT) and other armoured combat vehicles (ACV) losses over the past three month of fighting in Ukraine, Moscow’s ramping up of its industrial capacity means that it can maintain its current level of offensive activity “for the foreseeable future”, stated the UK Ministry of Defence (MoD).In a 29 January 2024 post on the social media platform X, the UK MoD’s Defence Intelligence stated that since early October 2023 Russian ground forces have been on the offensive in eastern Ukraine. During this period, Russian losses have increased with its forces likely losing up to 365 MBTs and 700 ACVs, achieving “minor” territorial gains.

“However, Russia can probably generate at least 100 MBTs per month and therefore retains the ability to replace battlefield losses and continue this level of offensive activity for the foreseeable future,” the UK Defence Intelligence stated.

In addition, UK Defence Intelligence stated that from 24 February 2022 to 25 January 2024, Russian ground forces likely lost around 2,600 MBTs and 4,900 other ACV in Ukraine. Russia losses of combat vehicles in 2023 was around 40% fewer than in 2022.

“It is highly likely that the reduction in armoured vehicle attrition rates was due to the increasing positional nature of the conflict in 2023 and because Russia spent a significant proportion of the year in a defensive posture,” UK Defence Intelligence wrote.

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