Originally Posted by
Big Pistons Forever
You may call it chicken little, I would suggest that historically low probability, but high consequence events have resulted in things spiralling out of control in unanticipated ways.
True enough, humans can be fickle and are capable of non linear responses to stimuli.
The USN has been given mission impossible, stop Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping. USN ships are facing sophisticated Iranian supplied anti ship missiles but in all probability will be able to always defeat them without sustaining damage, but what if they don’t? Then what ?
Well, why not look at what happened when Stark got hit.
We didn't bomb Iraq.
Look at what happened when Roberts hit a mine. We didn't start a war.
Look at what happened when Cole got attacked. We didn't start a war.
Let's say a savvy operational planner puts together a launch package and penetrates the missile defenses and scores a few hits on a DDG.
First off, ship will not necessarily sink. Damage control is a thing. Ship limps off to (some port) and the long term repair effort gets underway. (As with Cole).
Yes, some sailors will die. That sucks.
But see above example. Escalating a few orders of magnitude is not the only response.
There are levels of response. While I don't doubt that some pay back would occur, the level of payback is not predetermined and it need not escalate very far. (And go back to my point to you before about the "seen to be doing something" bit, which also does not require starting a war).
Take a look at the recent news item from the militias in Iraq: apparently, Iran has taken an assessment of American responses and they have throttled back. (A bit)
There are Rational actors on both ends of this.