Originally Posted by
petit plateau
Drop in liquids are in my opinion an illusion being deployed for distraction. But even if they were to become available at quantity then they are very costly. I expect them to get reserved for long range transoceanic and military, and other niche applications - driven largely by high costs.
Interesting, except you have to put this into context. SAF mixtures have been commercially flying for a number of years. However, only 50% SAF mixtures are currently approved with 100% SAF usage currently in the approval process to include its use on revenue flights.
As to cost, yes its currently about 2x the cost Jet A but the full market won’t be realized until 100% SAF usage is certified. Once that happens then you see both production increase and cost lower as projected. For example, SAF now accounts for about 2% of the Jet fuel market, up from .01% in 2019. And the yearly SAF production increase forecasts are now about 3% higher than Jet fuels yearly increases at 1%.
Plus those numbers are mainly for Part 121 ops. The Part 135, rotorcraft, and hybrid markets are still working out details as there is no feasible route forward until SAF achieves 100% certification. So while it may appear as an illusion, SAF has been flying in the real world for quite some time vs a drawing on paper.
In my experience, I believe SAF usage and hybrid ICE aircraft will fill the “void” vs a true e-aircraft at the “mass” transport level for years to come. At the UAM and RAM levels it’s a different dynamic and more fits the e-side of the equation.