Anders Puck Nielsen, a military expert, has published a YouTube video in which he discusses whether Russia can indeed attack NATO and whether a Russia-NATO war is really possible. His line of thought looks logical to me, so I want to share his conclusions with you.
Mr. Nielsen argues that, while Russia is indeed unable to launch a full-scale invasion against NATO countries, it is quite capable of attempting to break the Alliance apart. Russia is interested in establishing a new geopolitical reality in which NATO ceases to exist and Russia can have bilateral relations with each country separately, not through an "umbrella" of an alliance.
Russia might start by launching a small "military operation" on just one NATO country - Northern Finland seems a possible location. The scale of the strike should be enough to "trigger" Article 5, but not large enough for a guaranteed full-scale response by the NATO forces.
In that case, Russia would watch NATO's response closely. If other NATO countries (and the US, in particular) will decide that it is not necessary to get involved due to the "minor" nature of the incident, that would effectively mean that NATO Alliance is over. And that opens a lot of favorable opportunities for Russia.
If, on the other hand, NATO acts clearly and decisively and shows that the Alliance is indeed willing to go to war for a small piece of "insignificant" land, it is probable that Russia will back off.
What do you think about this scenario?
Source:
https://youtu.be/ZY7GPBSyONU?si=VSlzvJwKucWlSPPb