Originally Posted by
tdracer
Congress extended the EICAS waiver for the MAX 10 (and I presume the 7 but I've not paid attention to that).
The 777X is essentially a new aircraft - very, very little is being carried over from the legacy 777 other than the fuselage diameter (even the fuselage structure is being changed to increase the interior diameter - should make the 10 across seating in steerage a little more tolerable). The 787-3 was dropped because it wasn't selling. As I've outlined before, 'shrinks' don't often work because you're still carrying a lot of extra weight and drag you don't need - so I don't hold that against them. The 777-300ER was a game changer, can the 777X pull off the same? Many of the delays in the 777X program have little to do with program itself - much of it was due to the diversion of resources to solve the MAX crisis as well as the MAX and 787 production issues - and don't forget COVID.
The real question is what will Boeing do when the 777X is certified and in-service. Back in the early 2000's, we joked that Boeing was turning into 'derivatives are us' - all Condit and Stonecypher were interested in was soaking the existing line for all it was worth - no investment in new products. It was a big breakthrough when the 787 was launched (I'd like to think that the Boeing engineer's strike in 2000 had something to do with that - upper management discovered to their dismay that engineering really was essential to the business). Unfortunately they used the MacDac model for the 787 development and that turned the program into a massive
-up. Will they be willing to make the needed investment in a new program to replace the 737 with a proper new aircraft, or will it revert back to the 'derivatives are us' mode?
I'm only aware of the first extension by Congress. Was there another one (or two)? I think at this point we would have to be on Extension #3.
I feel like wings could be stretched or un-stretched to a couple different sizes depending on the airframe, but certification might be onerous. Then again, given Boeing's reluctance to publicize changes that should cause more involved certification, maybe they could have different size wings without telling anyone.
The 737 is dead ended unless someone can figure out a way to mount the next engines, which will presumably have even larger fans, above the wings. Horizontal stab probably won't like that though. If it were possible to have longer gear and an actual gear bay with a door, that would have happened by the time of the NG. Basically I think the 737 is obsolescent and EoL soon. All hail Airbus and tiny overhead bins.