Originally Posted by
Big Pistons Forever
The first step in the Operational Planning Process is selecting the aim. Obviously the aim must be realistic and achievable. So what is the aim of Prosperity Guardian ? If it is make the Red Sea transits safe then I don’t see how fleet units soaking up Houthi missiles is going to achieve that aim. Going after the shooters as has already been shown, is an exercise in whack a mole so there is no chance of a decisive blow.
Go back to the 1980's. For how long was the reflagging of tankers in the Persian Gulf undertaken? Your short attention span is noted.
Iran is continuing to supply the Houthi’s with anti ship munitions, so the threat isn’t going away, therefore I am struggling to see how this operation directly furthers the national security interests of the USA.
To be seen to be doing something is the sort of thing politicians do all of the time. A goodly number of my operational experiences were directly related to that. At the moment, this operation has moved from "presence" to active operations. Not sure how long that will last. (And your point on its limitations is not disagreed).
Ultimately the US won’t fix the ME, the inhabitants have to. I see this as a way to use a strategic disengagement to start forcing the ME countries to start being part of the solution not just part of the problem.
Nothing new under the sun, then. It just happens to be Tuesday.
I get how the above may sound naive, but after 50 years of robust American diplomatic, economic and military engagement, we seem to be in an even worse place
But we are not. The ME is in a different place.
The Abraham accords are (or were) very close to being worked out. 50 years ago that was not the case. Then again, 50 years ago the Islamic Republic if Iran didn't exist.
Fifty years ago, Egypt and Israel were still negotiating the end of the 1973 war. The US (and Israel's) relationships with the largest nation (population wise) in the middle east, Egypt, are both substantially better. Israel has formal relations with Jordan. The state of play among the various entities on the Arabian peninsula have all undergone change. The US has major base in Qatar. That wasn't true 50 years ago either.
Maybe it is time for a different tack.
Nice general "we must do something" complaint.
Your suggestions for the actionable suggestions are doubtless welcome in Foggy Bottom.
Mail it to them. I am sure you can find the street address for the US Department of State easily enough.
The beauty of Naval disengagement is there are no boots on the ground, and re-engagement in force is always possible given the self contained and self sustaining nature of a Naval Task Group.
Do not disagree, in principle.
In the meantime the Houthi’s don’t have the convent presence of the Great Satan to use to mobilize their base.
Sadly, your forgot about the Information War.
Disengagement ~ at this point ~ gives the Houthis some kid of bragging rights. The Propaganda war NEVER ends, and you, sir, are a target, as am I.
You have been hit.
This takes us back to:
Must be seen to be doing something.
This will go on for a while longer.
EDIT: from red dog's post and link:
It added: "Our aim remains to de-escalate tensions and restore stability in the Red Sea, but let us reiterate our warning to Houthi leadership: we will not hesitate to defend lives and the free flow of commerce in one of the world's most critical waterways in the face of continued threats."This is the eighth strike by the US against Houthi targets in Yemen. It is the second joint operation with the UK, after joint strikes were carried out on 11 January.
I remember operation Provide Comfort. It had an aim, and it was sort of fulfilled.
I remember Operation Sharp Guard. It had an aim, to stop the flow of arms into Former Yugoslavia, but was it successful?
Somewhat, from a limited maritime perspective.
I remember Operation Iraqi Freedom. It had a variety of aims, and one of them was achieved.
Saddam was replaced.
Some of the other aims? Not so much.
I remember Operation HOA. (Horn of Africa). (Or JTF HOA as we called it) As far as I know, it is still ongoing, two decades later.
That you believe there to be some simple "solution" is indeed naive. It's a mess, all seven days of the week.
As to a general conflagration, this, my friend, has me worried a bit more.
Two Hezbollah fighters killed by Israeli drone in Lebanon
BEIRUT, Jan 21 (Reuters) - Two Hezbollah fighters were killed on Sunday when an Israeli drone hit their vehicle in southern Lebanon, security sources said.Their ranks were not revealed but a source close to the Iranian-backed group said they were not senior
Hezbollah and Iran have a very close relationship. Israeli/Hezbollah activities escalating is where (in my view) stuff gets a lot worse a lot faster.