The incompetent fleet management aside, I see the fall of TUI as starting when they took over First Choice. The German control has done nothing to develop the airline or brand in the UK in any meaningful way. Everything from combined passenger numbers to market share to destinations served is down. But that's in the past. TUI has too much competition for classic short haul, especially now legacy airlines and LCCs offer package holidays as a prices quite often below what TUI does. TUI should just become a scheduled airline at this point and do packages on the side.